CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-02-24T20:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23915/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T03:57Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1441.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 828.063 Acceleration: -0.932477 Duration in seconds: 199279.82 Duration in days: 2.3064794 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.93 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 642.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/02/2023 Time: 03:57 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 43.75 hour(s)
Difference: -9.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-02-24T22:58Z
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